Friday, September 6, 2013

Aug '13 Unemployed Statistics vs Healthcare Mandate

A few numbers just released from the BLS about the unemployed, this not the official unemployment rate but a breakdown of how the unemployed are counted by type of positions they held, so the numbers are not going to coincide exactly with the U4 statistics.

The total of all the unemployed in Aug '13 was 5,856,000 compared to 5,934,000 in July '13, which makes it 78,000 less unemployed workers in Aug compared to July. We can't really say that there were 78,000 more jobs because the 'unemployed' are a relative number depending on how you count the unemployed. This release doesn't state exactly how they do count the unemployed, but since they are working with the recently layed-off, I'm pretty confident that the long-tern unemployed are not counted in this release, I will be sticking with working with the unemployed numbers here, not employed.

Nevertheless there were about a 1.3% *less unemployed* from July to Aug of this year, compared to Aug '12 there were 964,000 less unemployed persons or about a 14.1% change.

To further break it down by temporary vs permanent positions...Aug '13 had 986,000 temporary unemployed compared to 1,337,000 in July '13 making it 351,000 less temporary unemployed persons, compared to 1,147,000 in Aug '12 for a change of 161,000 less.

As for permanent positions in Aug '13 there were 3,707,000 unemployed full time positions compared to July '13's 3,548,000 making it a gain of 159,000 full time unemployed persons. Aug '12 had 4,444,000 unemployed make a difference of 737,000 less full-time unemployed person compared to Aug '13.

Its easy to see that there has been a shift from less full time to more temporary *employed* positions in just the last month or so, most likely in preparations for the upcoming healthcare mandate...